This commodity is a followup to my aboriginal commodity “The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Of The Brazilian Presidential Candidates.” The ambition abaft this commodity is to amend investors on the actual two candidates. Jair Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad will now absorb the aing brace of weeks aggressive anniversary added in a no-holds-barred attack to become Brazil’s aing President.
As I mentioned in my aboriginal article, I am not a political science major, nor do I accept any political training that qualifies me to be a political correspondent. I am a aborigine of Brazil but I am not a Brazilian aborigine which bureau that I do not vote. I additionally do not accord to any political affair nor do I accept a adopted applicant or party. Unfortunately, a majority of the accessories I acclimated to address this commodity are in Portuguese. Addition important point is that I am allegory the beneath candidates’ behavior at face value. I am not naive. I apperceive that politicians affiance the world.
Fernando Haddad, Ph.D. is a affiliate of Brazil’s Workers’ Affair (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) and has a Law Degree, Masters in Economics and a Ph.D. in Philosophy all from the University of Sao Paulo. He briefly formed at Unibanco (now a allotment of Banco Itau) as an Investment analyst but best of his career has been spent in the accessible sector. He was a adviser for an economics assay convention and a political science professor, all at the University of Sao Paulo.
He has additionally served as the Chief of agents to the Accounts and Bread-and-er Development Secretary for the burghal of Sau Paulo, as a appropriate adviser to the Ministry of Planning, Budget, and Management and as the Minister of Education during the Lula and Dilma Administrations. In 2012, he became the Ambassador of Sao Paulo and in 2016, absent the reelection to Joao Doria.
Source for the aloft branch was wikipedia.org
Fernando Haddad’s active acquaintance is Manuela Pinto Viera d’Avila. Manuela is a affiliate of the Communist Affair of Brazil (Partido Comunista do Brasil, PC do B). PC do B and PT accept been allies aback 1989 and accept been accustomed federal akin positions due to this alliance. Her declared profession is a Journalist admitting I could not acquisition a advertence assuming that she absolutely formed as a Journalist.
On Wikipedia, I begin that she has served in abounding accessible positions including actuality the youngest burghal agent in the history of Porto Alegre. She additionally served two agreement as a congresswoman and one appellation as a accompaniment adumbrative above-mentioned to acceptable Haddad’s active mate.
Fernando Haddad has yet to name who he will accept to be his Accounts Minister. This position is a actual important position because it can be acclimated as a arch indicator of approaching bread-and-er behavior for the country. I will go as far as adage that who a applicant picks to absorb this position could account him to win or lose a aing presidential race. In a contempo commodity from Reuters, it says that he would not be hiring a banker, he adeptness accredit an economist or a business baton but not a banker. He additionally said that the actuality would be “the arctic opposite” of Paulo Guedes, Jair Bolsonaro’s aces for Accounts Minister.
Candidate Haddad has affairs to apparatus an Emergency job conception program. In this program, he affairs to resume amateurish government projects (about R$120 billion reais account of projects), resume investments in Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) and in the federal apartment affairs (minha casa, minha vida). This affairs will additionally actualize a appropriate band of acclaim for low-income families that accept bad acclaim scores.
The applicant additionally affairs to abjure contempo activity law changes that were anesthetized during the Temer Administration. The capital credibility to be revoked are companies’ adeptness to outsource or farm out centralized positions and sealing admission to the Activity courts. Let me added explain these two credibility in how I accept them. Afterwards the activity law changes implemented by Admiral Temer, companies began subcontracting out the key functions of the company.
So a accounts administrator of a aggregation could absolutely be a banking adviser who has his own aggregation and who occupies the role of accounts director. What does it beggarly to allowance admission to Activity courts? The new activity law states that if an agent leaves a aggregation or is accursed and he/she signs the adjournment documents, they can no best sue the company. He wants it to go aback to the old way area an agent can sue the aggregation for up to bristles years afterwards abrogation the company.
Candidate Haddad has a plan to access the bulk of accessible and clandestine academy partnerships. At the aforementioned time, he wants to actualize a new authoritative bureau to adapt amusing media. He additionally has mentioned that he would like to reevaluate Petrobras’ ammunition appraisement policy.
Source for the Overview of bread-and-er policies: Valor Economico
Presidential applicant Jair Bolsonaro is a aloft Aggressive Officer and is accepted for his far-right and autonomous political views. In 1977, he accelerating from Agulhas Negras Aggressive Academy, which is Brazil’s best celebrated aggressive university. He served in the Brazilian Army from 1971 until 1988 aback he larboard at the rank of Capitan. He has been a burghal administrator and has served 7 agreement as a Congressman. He appointed General Hamilton Mourao to be his Carnality Admiral and is agreeable Paulo Roberto Nunes Guedes to be the Accounts Minister.
Source for aloft branch was wikipedia.org
Vice Admiral hopeful Hamilton Mourao advised at Agulhas Negras Aggressive Academy and accelerating in 1975. He served in the Brazilian Army from 1969 until 2018 aback he retired as a General. He is a affiliate of the Brazilian Activity Renewal Affair (Partido Renovador Trabalhista Brasileiro, PRTB).
The proposed Accounts Minister in the accident that Bolsonaro is adopted would be Paulo Roberto Nunes Guedes Ph.D. Mr. Paulo Guedes has a Bachelors and Masters amount in Economics from the celebrated university Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). In 1977, he accustomed his M.Sc. in Economics and in 1979 his Ph.D. all from the University of Chicago. He has been a Board member, Founding Partner and CEO of abounding acclaimed Brazilian Banking and Educational Institutions. If you would like to see all of them, amuse bang the antecedent articulation in this paragraph.
Presidential Applicant Jair Bolsonaro has mentioned some big names to run state-owned enterprises and authority government positions. One name that stood out today was Alexandre Bettamio who is the Admiral of Bank of America in Latin America.
He aboveboard admits he will abate the cardinal of Ministers from 28 to 15 and will accredit some Generals to ample these roles, as he feels they are beneath corruptible. Privatization at a fast clip has been his action cry. He claims to accept a plan that will accession aing to 700 billion reais through privatization. A majority of these privatizations will be done application a Golden Share to assure civic security. This plan will accommodate the privatization of Petrobras.
With these funds, the government will pay bottomward its debt which will appropriately abate absorption payments and absolute spending. He wants to acutely abate spending, apparatus budgetary reform, and he is adjoin an bequest tax. In adjustment to accomplish up for the accident of tax revenue, he has a plan to access revenues by incentivizing mineral exploration, aesthetic tourism and accretion accessible safety.
With commendations to PBR’s gasoline appraisement policy, he has contradicted himself a brace of times. He says that he is a chargeless bazaar advocate, but again he says that Petrobras should not canyon on amount animation to the end customer on a circadian basis.
Source for the Overview of bread-and-er policies: Valor Economico
Since I am an American, I cannot vote, and I am a analytical person, I asked assorted bodies from assorted amusing classes about their thoughts on anniversary candidate. This assay apparently has a huge allowance of absurdity but I would like for you to apperceive what I apprehend actuality in Brazil. There are no sources for the two paragraphs beneath and I would amusement it as an assessment or hearsay.
For Applicant Bolsonaro, I accept heard the afterward opinions. He has been a baby-kisser for so long, what has he done until now and what makes us anticipate he will be altered than any added politician. He is ex-military and his carnality admiral will be a retired Army General and we are afraid of a acknowledgment to a aggressive dictatorship. Bolsonaro does not accept in according rights.
Now for Haddad, this is what I accept heard. He will be addition boob for Lula and the Workers’ Party. He was the affliction ambassador in Brazil (fact: he concluded his appellation of ambassador in Sao Paulo with a 14% approval rating), how can I apprehend him to be a acceptable President. He will set chargeless all of his accompany that are in bastille because of Operation Car Wash.
A abrogating assessment directed at both candidates is basically the aforementioned I accept heard abounding times during the presidential elections in the U.S., which is we accept to aces the bigger of the worst.
I will reiterate my bulletin above. There are no sources for the two paragraphs aloft and I would amusement it as an assessment or hearsay.
In my aboriginal article, I appropriate that the market’s acknowledgment to Bolsonaro acceptable would be a ample bead in the aloft Brazilian Indices followed by a bit-by-bit access to new highs months later. I additionally believed that the Brazilian Real would abate but it would eventually move aback to its R$3.20 range. I now accept abnormally because of one reason, Paulo Guedes. Mr. Guedes is actual able-bodied accepted by the bazaar and so are his bread-and-er policies.
My acceptance is that this anniversary the bazaar will abide alive on their models in adjustment to amount in the ample anticipation of Bolsonaro acceptable and the baby anticipation of Haddad. Admitting the Real has adequate a lot adjoin the US Dollar the accomplished two days, I accede with Mr. Monty Guild Jr who feels it will ability R$ 3.40 in the aing brace of months and the Real’s animation will additionally abide to decline.
All that actuality said, what will appear if Haddad wins? It is analytic to anticipate that the abridgement will abide bottomward the aforementioned aisle of the accomplished four Workers Affair presidential wins. I do not feel that the bazaar will acknowledge absolutely to this news. The anticipation of Haddad acceptable is 25%.
Disclosure: I am/we are continued EWZ, BRZU.
I wrote this commodity myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not accepting advantage for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I accept no business accord with any aggregation whose banal is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: I accept no political amalgamation to any Brazilian Political Parties nor will I anytime admit such an amalgamation in the future.
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