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JM Financial’s analysis address on Timken India

We resume advantage on Timken India (Timken) and broadcast our revised numbers to agency in the alliance of ABC Bearings (ABC). In our view, the amalgamation of ABC Bearings would be EPS accretive from FY19 as net accumulation of the circumscribed article should access 17% (factoring in 11-month alliance in FY19) vs. 11% pale concoction through a allotment swap. Over FY18-21, we anticipation sales and balance CAGR of 16% and 25%, respectively, for the circumscribed entity, led by a) able advance in the calm CV bazaar (entry in caster bearings segment), b) bounce-back in exports on abatement of accommodation constraints and favourable USD/INR movement and c) a assembly ramp-up at ABC as it is operating at sub-optimal accommodation utilisation levels.

Outlook

We advance BUY with a Mar’20 TP of INR 675, as we lower our ambition assorted to 25x (30x) FY21E EPS due to added antagonism in the railways segment, a aciculate abridgement in net exports in the accomplished 3 years and amalgamation of a single-digit RoE business (ABC has low RoEs due to aerial accommodation utilisation).

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