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This is Allotment 2 of an assay address on Royal Brunei Airlines. Allotment 1 focused on Royal Brunei’s short/medium booty arrangement aural Asia and amplification opportunities application the new A320neo fleet.

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See accompanying report: Royal Brunei Airlines Allotment 1: North Asia & India amplification as narrowbody agile expands with A320neos

In this allotment CAPA will appraise Royal Brunei’s continued booty arrangement and amplification opportunities in the Australia, Europe and Middle East markets.

Royal Brunei’s continued booty arrangement currently consists of alone two approved continued booty routes – Bandar Seri Begawan-Melbourne, and Bandar Seri Begawan-Dubai-London Heathrow. Both are operated circadian with 254-seat 787-8s.

Royal Brunei additionally operates melancholia casework to Jeddah application the 787-8. In the accepted arctic summer agenda Royal Brunei operated two account flights for two months – from backward March to backward May. The aftermost Jeddah flight operated on 23-May-2017, and is appointed to resume in backward Nov-2017.

Royal Brunei tries to agenda 787 abundant aliment during periods back the Jeddah flight does not operate. The commitment of a fifth 787 in mid-2018 gives Royal Brunei the adaptability to accomplish the Jeddah flight during periods back one of its 787s is out for maintenance. The fifth aircraft could be acclimated about as a spare, convalescent believability on the two year-round continued booty routes and enabling added flights to Jeddah.

However, Royal Brunei is additionally attractive for new routes for the 787 agile in adjustment to accumulate the utilisation amount aloft 13 hours. A abridgement in the utilisation amount would be costly, and potentially aftereffect in bigger losses.

The continued booty operation is already unprofitable, whereas the abbreviate booty operation is now in the black. Royal Brunei is accordingly absorption mainly on bounded growth, as categorical in the aboriginal allotment of this report.

However, Royal Brunei needs to abide operating continued booty casework for cardinal reasons. As the 787 agile expands, there will be opportunities to accomplish adjustments that should abate the losses – although advantage is still unlikely.

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“For abbreviate booty we are there and we’d like to abide to abound that abbreviate booty brand and bear stronger accumulation on the abbreviate booty sectors”, Royal Brunei CEO Karam Chand told CAPA in Jun-2017.

“Long booty is a claiming as we don’t accept the optimal agile or the arrangement size. That brings its own challenges as you can’t drive a assemblage amount that will clothing the yields in the market.”

The fifth 787 provides a bit added scale. However, it will not be accessible to accomplish acceptable added revenues to account the amount of the added widebody aircraft.

Royal Brunei could potentially use the fifth 787 to upgauge bounded routes, decidedly to aperture accountable airports such as Hong Kong, Jakarta, Manila and Shanghai. However, these markets are not absolutely big abundant to abutment a 70% access in accommodation on a year-round basis.

Royal Brunei accordingly additionally needs to examine potential opportunities to aggrandize and advance its continued booty offering. One advantage beneath appraisal is advance London to nonstop.

The bounded Brunei-London bazaar is not big abundant to abutment a ceaseless flight. The UK is the fifth better antecedent bazaar for Brunei’s tourism industry, but company numbers are baby (less than 20,000 per year). London is a accepted destination for Brunei residents, but Brunei has a tiny citizenry (slightly added than 400,000).

However, a ceaseless flight to London would decidedly advance Royal Brunei’s position in sixth abandon markets. Royal Brunei now offers a two-stop artefact in aing markets from London and has to action advancing fares to allure passengers.

Kota Kinabalu in the east Malaysian accompaniment of Sabah, and Melbourne in Australia, are Royal Brunei’s capital two-stop markets from London. Royal Brunei has about a 17% allotment of absolute London-Kota Kinabalu cartage and a 13% allotment of the abundant above London-Melbourne market, according to OAG Cartage Analyser data.

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Royal Brunei carries approximately the aforementioned cardinal of cartage in the London-Melbourne bazaar as Emirates – and hardly added cartage than Etihad or Singapore Airlines. This makes it around angry with Emirates as the additional better adversary in the Melbourne-London market, afterwards Qantas.

Royal Brunei is additionally the additional better airline in the London-Kota Kinabalu bazaar afterwards Malaysia Airlines, which has a added than 50% share. Kota Kinabalu and the Malaysian accompaniment of Sabah accept become added accepted day-tripper destinations for Brits. Royal Brunei believes it can allure decidedly added Kota Kinabalu cartage by alms a one-stop product.

Its position in the Melbourne-London bazaar would additionally strengthen significantly. A one-stop artefact would be added competitive, enabling college yields and alluring added cartage all-embracing as cartage who will not accede a two-stop advantage are brought into the mix.

Mr Chand told CAPA that ceaseless casework to London will be considered once a aerodrome apparent advancement activity at Bandar Seri Begawan Brunei International Airport is completed. The aerodrome apparent currently cannot abutment 787-8s at abounding payload. “We got to get the pavement backbone sorted out. The assignment is actuality agitated out today”, he said.

Once a new brand is bent for the aerodrome surface, Royal Brunei will analyse the Bandar Seri Begawan-London avenue to accomplish abiding it can be operated ceaseless year-round afterwards any limitations on cartage or bags. Royal Brunei is somewhat anxious that there could be limitations during winter months back there are able headwinds – although technically, the 787-8 calmly has the ambit to accomplish the route.

If operationally the Bandar Seri Begawan-London avenue is accounted feasible, Royal Brunei will assess the economics of the avenue closely, including the appulse on the Bandar Seri-Begawan-Dubai sector, afore free whether it is able to decouple Dubai and London. “We’d adulation to do article like that”, Mr Chand said. “We aloof accept to attending at the economics. We backpack a lot of fifth abandon cartage amid Dubai and London at the moment.”

Royal Brunei will charge to abide confined Dubai for affidavit of civic interest. Dubai could potentially be bargain to beneath than circadian if London is upgraded to nonstop, but the government actor is not about to let Dubai be alone entirely.

Without the London leg, Royal Brunei will lose a ample allocation of its absolute Bandar Seri Begawan-Dubai traffic. Royal Brunei would accordingly charge to advance new markets, and aggrandize absolute one-stop markets, from Asia to Dubai to abutment a Dubai turnaround service. Royal Brunei has not yet adjourned its absolute bounded arrangement to actuate whether it can accomplish acceptable one-stop cartage to Dubai to alter the Dubai cartage that is now accustomed assimilate London.

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Over the accomplished several years Royal Brunei has been absorption mainly on continued booty to continued booty connections, rather than continued booty to bounded access or bounded to bounded connections. The alternative is to abide with the absolute strategy, but changes to the continued booty arrangement would acceptable crave added abbreviate booty feed.

Royal Brunei is also considering resuming expansion in Australia, which could become added achievable if the airline launches ceaseless flights to London. Australia is admired as a continued booty market, and requires cogent sixth abandon cartage due to the baby admeasurement of the bounded Australia-Brunei market.

Australia amplification can potentially be pursued with the new A320neo agile or with the fifth 787. Sydney can alone be operated with the 787, and the blazon is already acclimated for Melbourne.

However, Brisbane is achievable with the A320neo. Darwin and Perth are achievable with the A320ceo or A320neo, but would account from the decidedly bigger operating economics of the A320neo on routes of added than four hours.

Royal Brunei has advanced served Brisbane, Darwin, Perth and Sydney. It has additionally advanced served Auckland in New Zealand. Melbourne has been Royal Brunei’s alone destination in Australasia back backward 2011, back it alone Auckland, Brisbane and Perth as allotment of a above arrangement restructuring. Darwin and Sydney were alone in 2008.

Royal Brunei currently has hardly beneath than 1,800 one-way seats to Australia/New Zealand, compared to about 5,000 account seats above-mentioned to the 2011 restructuring. 

In 2012 Royal Brunei absitively to focus on Melbourne, advance the avenue from four account flights to circadian and rescheduling it to maximise connections. The accepted agenda includes seven hours of arena time in Melbourne every day, which is not ideal from an ability standpoint, but provides fast access to Dubai and London in both directions.

More than 70% of Royal Brunei’s Melbourne cartage alteration above Brunei, with London the best accepted destination. While Australia-Brunei is a actual baby bounded market, the airline strategically bare to advance one Australia avenue in adjustment to advice augment its circadian London account and accumulate its widebody agile abundantly utilised.

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Royal Brunei’s accommodation to Australia – and its all-embracing system-wide accommodation – accept been collapsed the accomplished bristles years. Back the alpha of 2012 the airline has operated at a system-wide ASK akin about 30% beneath 1H2011 levels.

Royal Brunei’s Australia operation ailing in 2011, back it generated 293,000 seats and flew 180,000 cartage to and from Australia. In 2016, the airline flew alone 130,000 cartage to and from Australia and generated 184,000 seats, with an boilerplate amount agency of 71%.

Royal Brunei has been annoyed with its achievement in Melbourne over the accomplished few years, admitting accepting to await heavily on alteration cartage on awful aggressive burghal pairs. “We are absolutely blessed with Melbourne. It’s done well”, Mr Chand said. 

Royal Brunei’s Australia achievement has bigger abundant to accede resuming expansion. Several destinations in Australia could potentially be resumed, but Brisbane seems to be the accomplished priority.

“The neo brings Brisbane into the mix”, Mr Chand said. “We did Brisbane afore so we will relook at it appealing hard.”

Royal Brunei is carefully assessing the economics of operating the A320neo on Bandar Seri Begawan-Brisbane to determine whether it can accomplish acceptable revenues and yields to awning the about aerial amount of a seven hour narrowbody flight. As best of its cartage from Brisbane would alteration above Brunei on awful aggressive burghal pairs such as Brisbane-London and Brisbane-Bangkok, the boilerplate crop may not be acceptable to awning the operating costs and absolve ablution the route.

As CAPA accent in the aboriginal instalment in this alternation of letters on Royal Brunei, new destinations in North Asia are about the focus as the airline expands its narrowbody agile from six to nine aircraft by aboriginal 2019. Brunei-North Asia is mainly a point-to-point market, potentially alms college yields than Brunei-Australia, accustomed that Royal Brunei will accept to await mainly on low acquiescent alteration cartage from any new Australia destination.

The abeyant barrage of ceaseless casework from Brunei to London could amplitude Royal Brunei to resume Brisbane, admitting the about austere crop affairs for the Brisbane-Bandar Seri Begawan route.

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Royal Brunei would charge added than aloof Melbourne and Kota Kinabalu cartage to ample up Bandar Seri-Begawan-London. Royal Brunei could await added on some of its absolute bounded destinations, including Bali and Manila. Royal Brunei currently has alone about a 1% allotment of London-Bali traffic, and an alike abate allotment of the London-Manila market, according to OAG Avenue Analyser data.

However, Royal Brunei do not accept abounding abandoned seats to Bali and Manila as Bali is a accepted aing point from China, while Manila is a ample bounded market. Royal Brunei may additionally charge to admeasure some of its Manila accommodation to Dubai if Dubai becomes a committed turnaround service. Brisbane is ideal, accustomed the ample admeasurement of the Brisbane-London bazaar and the actuality that Brisbane-Brunei is a tiny bounded market, enabling Royal Brunei to admeasure a ample admeasurement of Brisbane-Brunei accommodation to London.

Brisbane would additionally advice abutment abeyant new flights to southern India. India-Australia is a ample and fast-growing market, but is about underserved. Royal Brunei could action amid the fastest affiliation times from Melbourne and Brisbane to southern India, and would accept awful aggressive fares.

Mr Chand expects all-embracing ASKs to abound by 25% as Royal Brunei’s agile is expanded. This would still put ASKs hardly beneath their aiguille akin in 2011. However, bench accommodation and commuter numbers will be college than 2011 levels, absorption a abundant above absorption of abbreviate and average booty accommodation compared with those before the backward 2011 restructuring.

Royal Brunei’s anniversary commuter numbers ailing at 1.321 actor in 2010. The airline agitated 1.16 actor cartage in 2016 and is on clip to backpack about 1.2 actor in 2017. In 1H2017 the commuter numbers were up 2%, to 581,000. Commuter numbers could potentially ability 1.5 actor by 2019.

Royal Brunei is still by all measures a baby banderole carrier. However, the resumption of amplification over the aing two years is impressive, accustomed the tiny admeasurement of the Brunei bazaar and acute akin of antagonism in the Asian marketplace, including best of its one-stop burghal pairs.

Profitability has also improved decidedly back the 2011 restructuring. The abeyance of several continued booty routes and reduction/renewal of the widebody fleet, from six 777s to four 787s, has been a key contributor to the turnaround.

Royal Brunei exceeded the targets set in the antecedent five-year business plan afterwards the restructuring. Mr Chand said the airline is now tracking advanced of targets in the additional five-year plan, which began in Apr-2016.

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The abbreviate booty operation is in the black, and should become alike added assisting as the narrowbody agile is renewed and expanded, arch to a aerial akin of ability and bigger economies of scale. The better challenges abide with the continued booty operation, which continues to be accident making, arch to all-embracing losses at the airline.

Decoupling Dubai and London would be a adventurous accommodation that could potentially advance to alike steeper losses. However, it may be a action account demography as Royal Brunei tries to carve out a acceptable alcove and advance its position in a awful aggressive market.

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