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Kathryn Botto, Assay Analyst, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment of All-embracing Peace

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After North Korea’s sixth and most-powerful nuclear assay aftermost September, few would acquire accepted to see Admiral Moon Jae-in footfall off a alike to embrace Chairman Kim Jong-un on the alley at Pyongyang All-embracing Airport. Moon’s efforts to board North Korea in the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics catalyzed fast-paced shuttle address that has connected above the Korean Peninsula via North Korea’s engagements with the United States and China. The connected clip of address has paid absolute assets for the abridgement of tensions on the peninsula in the short-term, but over the long-term, Moon’s inter-Korean detente action will be activated as the accommodation of agreements fabricated appropriately far are adjourned and implemented. While the two Koreas abide to abound afterpiece and authorize aplomb architecture measures (CBMS), three above obstacles charge be considered: the appulse of negotiations on South Korean security; the aggressive priorities of the United States, China, and the two Koreas; and South Korean calm politics. Anniversary of these abandoned threatens to derail beforehand arise peace, end inter-Korean engagement, and drive a acknowledgment to hostilities.

Kathryn Botto is a assay analyst in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for All-embracing Peace. Her assay focuses on Asian aegis issues, with accurate accent on the Korean Peninsula and U.S. aegis action arise East Asia.

For the moment, the declared goals of the two Koreas arise well-aligned. Moon has authentic three goals for inter-Korean relations: 1) “resolution of the North Korean nuclear affair and enactment of abiding peace,” 2) “development of acceptable inter-Korean relations,” and 3) “realization of a new bread-and-er association on the Korean Peninsula.”1 Adjoin these objectives, the two countries promised in the April Panmunjom Acceding to “cooperate to authorize a abiding and solid accord administering on the Korean Peninsula” and allotment a “common ambition of realizing, through complete denuclearization, a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.”2 Moon’s chiffonier has additionally accurate North Korea’s preferences for sequencing these goals, apparent by Adopted Abbot Kang Kyung-wha’s contempo angle that the United States not burden North Korea for a acknowledgment of its nuclear account and instead acquire the cease of North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor as a acceptable acknowledgment for an end-of-war declaration.3 Through the Panmunjom and Pyongyang declarations, the two Koreas acquire agreed aloft a host of aggressive CBMs, accommodating bread-and-er initiatives, and interpersonal exchanges that will booty time, institutional inertia, and money to accomplish reality.

The two Koreas acquire accepted their commutual goals and priorities, but the agency by which some measures are implemented—particularly denuclearization, a academic end-of-war declaration, and assertive aggressive CBMs­—could acquire cogent implications for South Korean security. If Moon is apparent as abrasion South Korean aegis afterwards accepting abundant beforehand and assets from North Korea in return, it will be difficult for Moon to credibly abide answer his inter-Korean policy. The aboriginal agency that could abnormally appulse South Korean aegis will arise from alienated definitions of the byword “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” While inter-Korean rapprochement has abounding facets, denuclearization is, perhaps, the best arguable and elusive. North Korea has consistently insisted that denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula refers to denuclearization of both the South and North. While the George H.W. Bush administering removed US adapted nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991, partially to actuate North Korea to admittance inspections of its nuclear facilities, South Korea charcoal adequate by the US nuclear umbrella.4 A allotment of the aegis charge to South Korea beneath the 1953 Mutual Aegis Treaty amidst the two countries, aegis from the US nuclear awning would, ostensibly, abide in abode alike if the United States ceases the rotational deployment of cardinal assets in and about South Korea. Fulfilling North Korea’s ambition of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and removing South Korea from the US nuclear awning would decidedly adapt the accord and aegis options accessible to South Korea. Although assertive admiral to Moon acquire adumbrated otherwise,5 Moon himself has been actual accurate to characterize accord administering and denuclearization as abstracted issues. North Korea’s demands on South Korea’s nuclear aegis could potentially be mitigated if North Korea intends to seek (and the United States is accommodating to provide) admittance in the US nuclear awning as allotment of its aegis guarantees, but this would be actual unappealing to Beijing. If the costs to the accord and South Korean aegis created by North Korea’s acumen of denuclearization outweigh the allowances of allied with North Korea, assurance may become unsustainable.

This cost-benefit assay holds accurate not alone for the accomplishing of denuclearization measures, but for aggressive CBMs as well. As nuclear-security able Toby Dalton believability out, the Pyongyang Declaration’s accouterment of a no-fly area a the aggressive bound band (MDL), while abbreviation the blow of air operations aback arch to conflict, decidedly constrains the surveillance and assay capabilities of both Koreas.6 The aeriform area about the DMZ makes aeriform surveillance the best advantageous agency of ecology aggressive action on either side, which is capital to acceptance both sides’ adherence to the measures agreed aloft in the declaration. Aggressive CBMs can go a connected way adjoin abbreviation tensions amidst the two Koreas, but afterwards able analysis mechanisms neither ancillary is acceptable to absolutely assurance the added to advocate its end of the agreement. If the two Koreas are clumsy to dness this abridgement of accommodation for verification, the costs of implementing aggressive CBMs to South Korean aegis may already afresh outweigh the allowances of engagement.

Even if the two Koreas can accompany their goals, priorities, and agency absolutely into alignment, it will be difficult to acquire acknowledged inter-Korean relations afterwards the abutment of the United States and China. Behindhand of Kim Jong-un’s abundant speculated-upon intentions, he needs the endorsement of the United States and China to accomplish three of his above goals: a academic end to the Korean War, US aegis guarantees, and sanctions relief. While China aboveboard supports an end-of-war declaration,7 for the United States, the acknowledgment and aegis guarantees are both accidental aloft absolute beforehand adjoin denuclearization. Further, because it is awful approved afterwards by the North and about accessible to fulfill, a academic end to the Korean War is a admired acceding dent that the United States is absurd to use unless North Korea can board affidavit of beforehand arise final, absolutely absolute denuclearization (FFVD). The United States is additionally acquainted that an end-of-war acknowledgment could activate burden from North Korea, China, and potentially some in South Korea to deliquesce the United Nations Command, abjure troops from South Korea, or alike restructure or end the accord itself. So far, the concessions the two Koreas acquire offered as allurement for the end of war declaration, such as dismantling Yongbyon,8 do not arise aing abundant to basic FFVD for the United States to booty this risk. If North Korea and the United States become balked by anniversary other’s abridgement of reciprocity, flexibility, or advantage on the end-of-war acknowledgment and nuclear issue, the North may cull out of the negotiating action and assurance with the South.

In accession to an end of war declaration, aggressive CBMs put in abode to abate tensions on the arena could be impacted by the United States through the United Nations Command (UNC), which maintains blank of the DMZ and armistice, and US Forces Korea (USFK). UNC has already approved its access over inter-Korean measures as it blocked a South Korean acreage analysis of an inter-Korean railway in August.9 USFK additionally arise this ages that it is deploying new tanks to the 2nd Infantry Division a the DMZ, the aboriginal alter of tracked cartage back 2014.10 UNC and USFK acquire the adeptness to enhance aegis alike as South Korea removes bouncer posts and mines from the DMZ, which could apathetic or complicate relations with the North and aggravate tensions in the alliance.

Sanctions abatement all-important to apparatus inter-Korean bread-and-er initiatives additionally requires the abutment of the United States and China. Alike if Seoul removes unilateral sanctions imposed on North Korea afterwards the biconcave of the Cheonan in 2010, the accepted all-embracing sanctions administering precludes about any bread-and-er assurance with North Korea. This includes operations in the Kaesong Automated Area and aspirational proposals Moon fabricated to Kim during their aboriginal affair for energy, acumen and transportation, and eco-tourism cooperation that could be accustomed if relations bigger significantly. China has vocally accurate appropriation UN sanctions on North Korea,11 but the all-embracing community, and absolutely the United States, is absurd to be as accommodating to abate sanctions afterwards beforehand on denuclearization in return.

Even if Moon and the all-embracing association can somehow aboveboard aggressive priorities of the two Koreas and all-embracing partners, South Korean calm backroom adeptness bear a admonishment that impedes his inter-Korean agenda. Gallup Korea put Moon’s approval appraisement this September at 60 percent, while added acclamation put it beneath 50 percent—still a college approval appraisement than best added Korean presidents at this point in their term, but a 15-point bead from the antecedent quarter.12 While inter-Korean summits helped his acceptance beforehand this year, Moon’s administering is adverse criticism as abounding of his bread-and-er behavior acquire yet to crop results. Best critically, his million-dollar jobs amalgamation has not yet impacted unemployment, abnormally for youth, which accomplished its accomplished point back the all-around banking crisis this August. To accomplish affairs worse, his efforts to accession the minimum allowance and abate assignment hours arise to acquire aching rather than helped low-income workers.13 If Moon is clumsy to bear on bread-and-er promises soon, his abject will abide to reflect their annoyance in polling data, and political and accessible abutment for his behavior (including those on North Korea) may abate as the National Assembly looks adjoin elections in 2020.

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While the asymmetric adeptness of the controlling appointment gives Korean presidents ample ascendancy to apparatus their behavior with few constraints in the aboriginal two years of their terms, the chase for assumption about consistently disrupts their calendar after on. The abridgement of checks on the “imperial presidency” has not alone tempted presidents to corruption their powers, but incentivizes candidates to atrociously vie for the office, generally disturbing bottomward the incumbent’s behavior and acceptability in any way accessible and abrogation a ashamed admiral in their wake. The South Korean architecture allows presidents alone a distinct five-year term, and if Moon’s approval ratings abide to plummet, candidates will seek to ambit themselves from Moon and his policies. If South Koreans elects a admiral in 2022 who does not allotment Moon’s angle on inter-Korean relations, his calendar could calmly be antipodal and assurance could cease.

In affective from negotiations to implementation, a cardinal of the elements—both adept and economic—will be difficult or absurd for Moon to control. Diplomatically, the best actual antecedent of abrasion in negotiations is proving to be the United States’ annoyance over the accelerated acceleration of developments in inter-Korean relations,14 which Moon will acquire adversity balmy unless the clip of North Korean denuclearization keeps up with the clip of inter-Korean relations—an absurd prospect. In accession to the abstruse barriers to accelerated denuclearization, the Moon administering has already set in motion a aggregation of economic, cultural, and aegis initiatives with the North. Slowing the clip of rapprochement to board the United States would be a difficult advertise to both the North Korean administering and his abject in South Korea. As South and North Korea abide to apparatus agreed aloft measures, these altered timelines will abide to bend and tensions in the accord will abide to grow.

While the United States’ expectations are difficult to accommodate with inter-Korean goals, the appulse of US-China relations and all-around bread-and-er trends on North Korea action is about absurd for South Korea to mitigate. As the US-China accord appears acceptable to abide to adulterate as the barter war becomes added protracted, US-China relations could calmly attenuate adept beforehand on North Korea. This has already happened once, as Trump cited barter abrasion with China as the acumen for cancelling Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s cruise to North Korea in August.15 Economically, both the barter war and a looming all-around bread-and-er abatement abuse to aggravate altitude for Moon’s bread-and-er reforms to succeed, which accessible assessment will acceptable accusation on the administration.16 These two factors are about out of Moon’s control, but may actual able-bodied derail his inter-Korean agenda.

Creating a absolutely abiding accord on the Korean Peninsula will be an acutely connected process, and its success additionally depends on a cardinal of alien factors, such as what Kim Jong-un absolutely wants, how abundant adaptability he will tolerate, and for how long. Keeping talks activity is the best way to accumulate tensions down, but “talks for talks sake” cannot abide forever. To move from negotiations to implementing measures in adjustment to abate tensions connected term, Moon charge not alone accommodate North and South Korea’s goals, but antithesis the aggressive priorities of all-embracing stakeholders, accomplish beforehand on his aggressive bread-and-er agenda, and beforehand accessible and calm political support.

1 Ministry of Unification,

2“Full Text of the Panmunjom Declaration,” The Japan Times, April 28, 2018,

3 John Hudson, “South Korea reveals plan to aperture stalemate in U.S.-North Korea talks,” The Washington Post, October 3, 2018.

4 Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris, “A history of US nuclear weapons in South Korea,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 73, October 26, 2017,

5 Uri Friedman, “The Mystery at the Heart of North Korea Talks,” The Atlantic, June 26, 2018,

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6 Toby Dalton, “A Challenge and an Opportunity in the Latest Inter-Korean Aggressive Agreement,” War on the Rocks, October 1, 2018, 

7 “China says it supports two Korea’s discussions on end-of-war declaration,” Yonhap, September 25, 2018,

8 Hudson, “South Korea reveals plan to aperture stalemate in U.S.-North Korea talks.”

9 Kim Gamel, “UN Command blocks acreage analysis of inter-Korean railway,” Stars and Stripes, August 30, 2018,

10 Marcus Fichtl, “Fresh tanks to alter ‘enduring accessories set’ on Korean Peninsula,” Stars and Stripes, October 9, 2018,

11 Benjamin Haas and Justin McCurry, “Optimism and abashing in Seoul over Trump-Kim summit,” The Guardian, June 12, 2018,

12 Gallup Korea,

13 Cynthia Kim and Heekyong Yang, “Moonwalking: South Korea’s wage, hours behavior backlash for jobless, low assets workers,” Reuters, July 17, 2018,

14 Hyonhee Shin, “South Korea says Pompeo complained about inter-Korean aggressive pact,” Reuters, October 10, 2018,

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15 See Admiral Trump’s cheep on August 24, 2018,

16 “Another bread-and-er abatement is aloof a amount of time,” The Economist, October 13, 2018,

Eun A Jo

In what is advised one of Pyongyang’s best almighty advertising events—a accumulation achievement alleged the “Glorious Country”—Moon Jae-in addressed some 150,000 North Koreans, who erupted in bathetic acclaim as he proclaimed a “new era” of accord and prosperity. In his seven-minute-long speech, Moon implored the two Koreas to “end the accomplished 70 years of abhorrence and booty a big stride of accord to become one again.” For Moon, these images agitated a analytical bulletin to both his calm and all-embracing audience: The accord action is not dead.

Eun A Jo is a PhD Student at Cornell University.

Skeptics were quick to argue that the acme was a bald exercise in symism—that it had failed, because denuclearization remained a away hope. In their captivation with denuclearization, however, they implied—falsely—that Seoul’s objectives were the aforementioned as those of Washington. In reality, apparent from Moon’s standpoint, the Pyongyang acme was a timely—if impermanent—victory to consolidate abutment for his Nordpolitik and accomplishment the aged nuclear diplomacy.

The third inter-Korean acme of 2018 transpired amidst growing cynicism in Washington about the amount of assurance with Pyongyang. Despite its acceding to denuclearize, the North has connected to beforehand its Yongbyon nuclear accessories at an alarming pace.1 In accession revelation, Seoul accepted that South Korean companies had illegally alien over 33,000 bags of North Korean atramentous amidst April and October of aftermost year, in aperture of the UN sanctions regime.2 As US-China tensions deepened over tariffs, suspicions of Chinese efforts to attenuate Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” attack loomed large.3 With the antecedent spirit of optimism bound waning, Trump canceled Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s appointed cruise to North Korea, blaming the administering for bereft beforehand on denuclearization and accusing China of secretly artifice its UN sanctions obligations.

Against this backdrop, Moon entered accession inter-Korean acme with a bashful aim: taming Trump’s growing agitation and animating the adjourned diplomacy. Moon’s ambition was bound abundantly by circumstance. He was acutely acquainted of the differences amidst Pyongyang and Washington on the analogue and ambit of denuclearization—a gap that, were he to arch by acrimonious a side, could amount his believability as an intermediary. Likewise, Moon could not abstracted inter-Korean cooperation from the broader accord process; any all-embracing bread-and-er activity would attenuate the all-embracing sanctions administering that alternating South Korean governments acquire formed agilely to build. These constraints explain in allotment why Moon’s address vis-à-vis Trump and Kim is (often unsatisfyingly) vague: Moon pushes for accuracy alone if it does not blow an actualization of partiality, which may attenuate his angary as the alive broker. Fortunately for Moon, his abstemiousness has enabled him to breeding a acceptable action for the accord action to endure—at atomic so far.

Considering Moon’s objectives and expectations, the inter-Korean acme was, for the best part, successful. For anniversary of his audience—Trump, Kim, and his capacity in South Korea—Moon supplied a much-needed accession of aplomb to sustain the advancing dialogue.

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First and best importantly, Moon assertive Trump to alter a additional affair with Kim. Although the North banned to board an account of its nuclear arsenal—a acknowledgment Washington has long-demanded—Kim promised to acquiesce all-embracing inspections at the shuttering of the missile assay armpit at Tongchang-ri and hinted at his (conditional) alertness to annihilate the nuclear circuitous in Yongbyon. While these pledges acquire bound address on the North’s adeptness to beforehand its nuclear force (in accurate its assembly of fissile actual and ICBMs), they assume to acquire annoyed Trump’s charge for reassurance. In his tweet, Trump hailed the outcomes of the Pyongyang acme as “very exciting.”4 Signaling the president’s approval, Pompeo additionally issued a account cogent his admiration to “immediately” resume talks with the North. Following his affair with the North Korean adopted abbot Ri Yong-ho on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, he travelled to Pyongyang to altercate the accommodation of the additional Trump-Kim summit, depicting his chat as “productive.”5

In resuscitating diplomacy, Moon not alone defused Washington’s accretion annoyance with Pyongyang but additionally played a added absolute role in enabling its engagement. This is important for Seoul, which consistently fears “Korea-passing,” or any book in which a admirable arrangement is addled in its absence. The affair over Seoul’s marginalization became decidedly arresting back Trump arise the abeyance of US-South Korean aggressive contest during the Singapore summit. Though his unilateral accommodation happened to be a acceptable abruptness for Moon’s accelerating government, the adventure underscored Seoul’s dispensability and aloft applicable about abandonment.6 In this sense, the contempo nuclear deadlock provided Moon an opportunity-in-crisis to reestablish his role as a axial amount in facilitating US-North Korean relations.

Second and added concretely, Moon aesthetic the accommodation of inter-Korean cooperation in both aggressive and bread-and-er domains. The above is notable: the two Koreas active an all-encompassing aggressive acceding (with a 17-page-long annex) that, inter alia, designates no-fly zones and bans assorted aggressive contest forth the demilitarized area (DMZ). In addition, it establishes a amphibian absorber in the Yellow Sea and demolishes a cardinal of heavily armed bouncer posts aural the DMZ. Taken together, these accomplish acquiesce the two Koreas to abate the blow of a accepted conflict—whether by blow or miscalculation—that could circling out of control. The Cheonan biconcave and the battery of Yeonpyeong island in 2010, in particular, acquire able for the South Korean accessible the crisis of accepted aggressive escalation. Alike as the blow of the apple is bedeviled on the North’s nuclear threat, a accepted fallout is a added absolute and actual blow for Seoul. The aggressive allocation of the Pyongyang Declaration, therefore, delivers a actual win for the Moon administration.

On the bread-and-er front, Moon proposed a adventurous amplification of cross-border projects including reconnecting railways and a reopening of the Kaesong automated circuitous and Kumgang day-tripper zone. Abounding of these promises cannot be accomplished with accepted levels of sanctions adjoin the North, but their admittance in the Pyongyang Acknowledgment is still advantageous to the admeasurement that they accession Kim’s perceived allowances of cooperation. In April, Kim declared that the nuclear bender of his byungjin action was complete and that he would allot himself to “socialist bread-and-er construction”—a new conception that has back been agilely trumpeted in the regime’s propaganda.7 This explains why Moon is acceleration bottomward on the bread-and-er address of their rapprochement. Indeed, on his cruise to Pyongyang, he brought with him leaders of South Korea’s top conglomerates—including Samsung, Hyundai, and LG—signaling that he is accessible to abutment the North’s bread-and-er revival. This is allotment of Moon’s broader action to authenticate to Kim how able bread-and-er affiliation could be—should he denuclearize.

Finally, the acme stered Moon’s angel as a acclimatized agent and helped consolidate calm abutment for his Nordpolitik. A apathetic abridgement had acquired his approval appraisement to abatement sharply—below 50 percent for the aboriginal time—as the acme approached. Renewed abhorrence amidst Washington and Pyongyang was doubly unhelpful: conservatives criticized inter-Korean détente as confusing from absolute troubles at home, amidst boundless acceding from the public. Adverse an abortive political climate, Moon’s acme objectives focused on breeding images of aerial accessible relations value. His affecting accent at the accumulation games, advertisement alive in South Korea, able his narratives of peaceful reunification. In accession allegorical move, Moon and Kim visited Mount Paektu—a axial abode in Korean mythology—which helped to bake accessible alertness of the two Korea’s connected aggregate history. Strengthening this angel of reconciliation, the leaders additionally apprenticed to adjust ancestors reunions and accordingly bid for the 2032 Summer Olympic Games. The furnishings were immediate: Moon’s acceptance rebounded to mid-60 percent—at a two-month high—and bourgeois action adjoin inter-Korean address absent its growing traction.8 For Moon, this was a adapted dosage of optimism for his administering away and at home.

Moon’s aim for the inter-Korean acme was to argue anniversary of his audiences—Trump, Kim, and the South Korean public—that address should continue. In a contempo interview, Moon stated, “[t]he plan is to accomplish abundant beforehand by the year’s end so the action cannot be reversed.” This suggests that his action for ambidextrous with Pyongyang applicable Washington is to accomplish both parties to the accord action by accretion their stakes in cooperation, allotment by piece, until eventually neither ancillary can defect. This action appears adapted for Moon accustomed his abhorrence to advance either ancillary too acerb to accomplish concessions—on denuclearization for North Korea and on sanctions for the United States. In fact, insofar as Moon’s overarching cold is to deepen Seoul’s assurance with Pyongyang afterwards jeopardizing its relations with Washington, it is in his absorption to accumulate creating an consequence of beforehand (regardless of whether it is real) and to sustain the appropriate altercation for the accord process. Assessed beneath these expectations, the outcomes of the Pyongyang acme present a far added acknowledging account for Seoul than what the US-centric accounts suggest.

To be sure, assorted factors may alter the accepted adept drive that Moon helped to rebuild, including, best importantly, how able-bodied Seoul can administer Washington’s expectations activity forward. Already, signs of breach are emerging. To Seoul’s alarm, the administrator of the US-ROK Combined Forces afresh barred the South Korean aggressive from entering the DMZ to audit the North’s railways.9 The adventure accent how the accomplishing of the inter-Korean aggressive acceding may articulation aloft its adeptness to alter the appearance and ambit of absolute US-ROK aggressive cooperation.10 Equally troubling, Washington’s affirmation on the appliance of sanctions could advance to an impasse in inter-Korean bread-and-er cooperation, abbreviating the North’s appetence for dialogue. This is a huge anguish for Moon: sanctions abatement depends abundantly on whether Trump and Kim are able to attenuated their differences on denuclearization, over which Moon has bound leverage. What Trump is accommodating to accommodation in his aing affair with Kim (and carnality versa) will accordingly comedy an cutting allotment in free whether Seoul’s success in Pyongyang can last.

1 “Infrastructure Improvements at North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Assay Facility,” 38 North, June 26, 2018,

2 Choe Sang-hun, “South Korean Companies Accused of Illegally Importing Atramentous From North,” The New York Times, August 10, 2018,

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3 “Trump accuses China of blockage beforehand with North Korea,” BBC, August 30, 2018,

4 Michael D. Shear, “Trump Lauds Potential North Korea Acme as ‘Very Agitative for the World’,” The New York Times, April 9, 2018,

5 Choe Sang-hun and David E. Sanger, “North Korea Agrees to Acquiesce Inspectors Into Nuclear Testing Site, Pompeo Says,” The New York Times, October 7, 2018, Pacific

6 Eric Schmitt, “Pentagon and Seoul Surprised by Trump Acceding to Halt Aggressive Exercises,” The New York Times, June 12, 2018,

7 John Delury, “Kim Jong-un Has a Dream. The U.S. Should Help Him Realize It,” The New York Times, September 21, 2018,

8 “Approval ratings for Moon acknowledgment to mid-60s,” Joongang Daily,

9 Sukjoon Yoon, “North and South Korea’s New Aggressive Agreement,” The Diplomat, October 2, 2018,

10 Scott Snyder, “The Pyongyang Declaration: Implications for U.S.-ROK Coordination on North Korea,” Council on Adopted Relations, September 24, 2018,

This commodity was originally appear in the Asan Forum.

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